With some reservations, 2012 looks likely to be a continuation in good trading for Morocco’s auto industry, which has been enjoying steady growth from 2009. This is reliant on a scenario in which the eurozone debt crisis is managed in a way that does not impact on consumer spending in the core export market for Morocco. That being said, BMI forecasts 114,313 vehicles to be sold over the course of 2012, and 122,433 over 2013. This beats the previous record of 120,150 sold in 2008 – which was a definite high water mark before the global financial crisis hit worldwide vehicle sales.
Passenger vehicles, a significant business segment in the country, are increasing in domestic sale volume at a steady rate,
and we foresee this trend continuing throughout the rest of the forecast period, roughly in line with regular positive growth in the economy as a whole. The metric BMI uses to measure this is passenger car density per 1,000 of the population. We have seen linear growth of this figure through recent years, with almost 87/1000 in 2011. Our predictions place this number to be around 137/1000 in 2016. We view this as indicative of the internal strength driving the Moroccan economy. However, the government downgraded their own growth predictions in early February 2012, to 4.2% over the course of 2012. It is significant to note that the incoming Prime Minister, Abdelilah Benkirane, promised growth of 5.5% a year for the next four years when he unveiled his reform package in January. GDP growth stood at 4.5% in 2010.
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This downgrade in expectations is on the back of the on-going European debt crisis, which has particularly affected the economies of France and Spain, two of Morocco’s most significant trading partners. Additionally, Morocco enjoys significant trade agreements with the EU as a whole – meaning that they will be strongly affected by events in Brussels and throughout the rest of the EU and eurozone. As such, Morocco’s auto exports, a significant factor in the export economy of the country, are subject to risks which are not within either geographic or political control of Rabat.
BMI sees production rising considerably over the forecast period, with a total CBU production of 541,948 in 2016. Our forecast looks set for 150,878 vehicles to be produced over the course of 2012. This number will largely be exported to the EU. This is notable of a sharp divergence from a sufficiency situation, where the number of produced vehicles far outstrips domestic demand. This is indicative of the loss of competitive advantage which was formerly enjoyed by some CEE countries – with Dacia operating facilities in Morocco. It is reported that monthly salaries for Moroccan workers are in the range of EUR250, whereas Romanian workers have an average salary of EUR446.
In January 2012, the Renault Melloussa factory was opened. The process, which was started in 2007 with an official signing in front of King Mohammed VI, has caused much diplomatic headache between France and Morocco in the interim, with accusations that Renault is deliberately undermining its own French employment. The deal which was eventually formed between the Moroccan state and Renault has been notably generous to the French auto-maker, with a total exemption of income and export taxes for five years, announced by the government over the period ’07 to ’09, reports slateafrique.com. The facility is reputed to be zero-emissions, and Renault heralds it as a ‘total rethink’ of the production process. Advantages of salaries allow a far greater use of manual techniques, which in turn will require less automation. The original production run is expected to be 170,000 vehicles per year, with an ultimate expectation of 400,000 produced per annum. The factory will employ 2,600 workers in 2012, and will eventually have around 6,000 staff.
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