by Diego Minuti
Economic forecasts on the Moroccan economy for 2015 are positive, according to the High Commission for Planning, which eyes the future of the Kingdom with optimism.
According to the 2015 provisional budget, Morocco’s GDP growth in 2014 should be around 2.6%. The same data for the ongoing year should go up to 4.8%, supported by the significant growth in internal demand.
These numbers, according to the High Commission for Planning, should lead to a reduction of the budget deficit worth 4.5%, while inflation should grow to 0.8% from 0.4% in 2014.
The forecasts change data released by the commission in June last year which, in a way, echoed the far from positive forecasts of the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has been putting pressure on the kingdom to pass the necessary reforms against a persevering crisis that has been afflicting the country for years.
GDP growth would be a consequence of the primary sector (the food industry and fishing) which, with the contraction registered in 2014, would record in 2015 an inversion of the trend with a 9.3% growth.
Non-agricultural activities would continue to grow, for their part, from 3.4% in 2014 to 4.1%.
The forecasts released by the High Commission for Planning, however, have failed to convince analysts, mainly as they are based on uncertain data and hypotheses considered as too optimistic, although they are based on math models.
An example comes from forecasts regarding the agricultural sector which are positive as they expect a ”good campaign”, without giving certain economic parameters. Also, the optimism connected to the tourism industry (which is getting fresh injections of funding) appears perhaps excessive when it quantifies a 1% growth from the 0.2% in 2014 – a desirable increase which is however not sufficiently motivated. (ANSAmed)